Kyiv/Moscow - After a relative hiatus of about two months, Ukraine returned on January 24 to bombing the Russian depth with its drones, focusing mainly on oil and gas refining facilities, pipelines, stations and refineries.
What is striking and new about this bombing is that it has become almost daily, with record numbers of drones, often exceeding 100, according to the Russians, and the range of some of them has reached about 1,700 km deep into Russia, something that has never happened before.
The Ukrainian target bank was 7 Russian facilities within 10 days, most notably in the Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, Ryazan, Saratov, Astrakhan, Bryansk and Tver provinces, in addition to the Republic of Tatarstan.
What is Ukraine's goal?
Ukrainians do not disagree about their country's direct goal of focusing the bombing on Russian oil and gas facilities, because this sector constitutes the backbone of Russia's economy and the engine of their military machine in the war that is approaching the end of its third year.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, an expert at the Media Resistance group, said that oil and gas sales constituted “about 40% of Russia’s budget until the beginning of 2022, and the Ukrainian strikes threaten this vital sector, because it has already lost about 9-20% of its production and export capabilities.”
He added in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that leading companies such as Gazprom have become threatened at both the local and global levels.
For his part, political scientist Oleksiy Holobotsky told Al Jazeera Net, “Each Ukrainian strike cost Russia direct losses ranging from $50-100 million, but indirect losses are estimated at hundreds of millions at a minimum, as they include the disruption of contracts and supply chains, the most prominent of which was the Baltic Pipeline 2 after the oil pumping station in Andriapol in Tver province was targeted.”
Weaknesses
It seems that the Ukrainians are satisfied with the impact of these strikes on the fronts of their war with the Russians, as they talk about a “decline” in the momentum of Russian attacks on the fronts, and major “breakthroughs” inside Russian territory.
According to the Deep State war mapping website, the intensity of Russian offensive operations has clearly declined in recent days, after reaching its peak in the second half of December.
The website noted a 44% decrease in the intensity of attacks on the Pokrovsk axis in Donetsk province (the hottest fighting front currently), by 13% on the fronts of the Russian Kursk province, and by 10% on the Lyman fronts in Lugansk province.
"Our weak point is infrastructure, and we are gradually addressing this as we get more air defenses," said Valery Romanenko, a researcher at NAO Aviation University in Kiev.
“The Russian economy can survive by closing a number of stations and refineries, and shifting towards relying on others far away in Moscow, Yaroslavl and elsewhere,” he told Al Jazeera Net. “However, the recent Ukrainian strikes have proven, on the other hand, that the Russians’ weak point does not lie only in the weight of their oil and gas sector, but also in their inability to protect their territory and this sector, because our drones were able to successfully penetrate the airspace of 13 Russian provinces.”
The war bill is increasing
Ukrainians compare what is happening today with what happened in the last years of the Soviet era, and talk about the possibility of repeating the scenario, and forcing Russia to “fair negotiations.”
“The Soviets collapsed with the blockade of the oil and gas sector after they occupied Afghanistan,” says expert Kovalenko. “Today, little by little, the Kremlin and the Russian public realize that they are spending millions or even billions of dollars to seize every square kilometer in Ukraine, and that this price has multiplied many times over what it was in 2022.”
Targeting oil facilities
The number of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries rose sharply in January, the highest number of any month last year.
Russian authorities and companies rarely comment on the consequences of Ukrainian attacks on their industrial facilities and the country’s economy. The fact that the Russian government classified data on Russian crude oil production and exports in 2022 makes it difficult to assess the impact of Ukrainian attacks.
Although some analyses inside Russia say that the recent attacks may lead to the closure of some oil refineries and fuel shortages at Russian stations, some experts believe that the situation is currently under the control of the Russian authorities.
Economic analyst Igor Belsky told Al Jazeera Net that the broader campaign launched by Ukraine to target Russian oil infrastructure is linked to the changing situation in global markets.
He added that the United States asked Ukraine last March to stop attacks on Russian energy supplies for fear that this would lead to a rise in global oil prices.
But now, with the International Energy Agency forecasting that the market could face a surplus of 1 million barrels per day this year, Washington has imposed the toughest sanctions on the Russian oil and gas industry, with a large part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” such as Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz falling under restrictions.
However, the spokesman stresses that the Russian economy and oil industry can easily withstand the shutdown of several refineries for a few weeks because there is a possibility to cover the fuel deficit caused by their damage through stations located in cities such as Moscow, Yaroslavl and Kstovo in the Nizhny Novgorod region.